Control Vs Prediction

Entrepreneurship is about an idea which adds value to the society and makes money. Yes, the idea is important, but what else is important is the ability to control one’s life.

Having control over life does not mean that you are a control freak, but you are someone who manages their time, effort and money efficiently.

Entrepreneurs learn from others, have a longer / higher vision and can see small things which can either hinder or add value to someone’s life.

Entrepreneurship is about prediction. Entrepreneurs learn to predict and also control the future.

When you have an idea and build a solution, you draw up a roadmap which will demonstrate how many people are going to use your solutions and when someone adopts to your way, you directly or indirectly start controlling their behaviour through your solution. Once that becomes a habit, it is very difficult for someone to change.

Predicting user behaviour along with providing a valuable solution is something which makes entrepreneurs different.

Leveraging Contingencies

Many a times when we hit a roadblock, we just go into a shell. The moment we get into the shell, we start thinking about possible solutions and many a times, all the solutions we think about may not make sense.

The third principal of effectuation helps focus on turning the unexpected into our favour.

Let me give you an example, when Air Deccan (India) started their operations, many people were bullish. All airlines which were existing till then (Air India, Kingfisher, Jet Airways etc.) were all full service airlines and Air Deccan was the only low cost carrier and it was very different from the other airlines. Food was not free, few rows of seats were not free. Additional luggage was charged etc. This is the unexpected ways to make money. Air Deccan succeeded and also expanded rapidly.

Today, Indigo is the king of low cost carriers in India. It came to such an extent that the Government had to set many rules to ensure people also benefit from the business. Indigo found all the ways to create business. Even wanting to board first is charged (which no one thought about earlier). Keeping aside the softer aspects, just look at the various ways Indigo makes money apart from ticket sales.

Keep your eyes open, you don’t know where your can generate more revenue from.

Why to build a Co-existing Enterprise

The first thing an Entrepreneur does after evaluating his competition is to plan how to kill his competition. Again, this is human tendency.

The world has changed in the last three decades and today, it is definitely not about killing your competition, but to understand how to work with them.

For instance, the Picture Tube in a TV which Samsung produces is purchased by almost all its competition – Sony etc. Why? Can’t the companies make their own picture tubes? They can, but they rather focus on the outcome of their product rather than the small but important component of the TV. Sony also purchases OLED panels from LG.

The large manufacturing companies definitely use third party components in their products. How are Train engines and aircraft manufactured? The key components are in-house but the remaining are got from their supply chain companies. This not only reduces their burden, but also allows co-existance of companies.

Today’s entrepreneurship is all about co-creation. The more partners you have the more stronger is your value and these partners don’t allow you to loose, but help you move forward.

As a Entrepreneur or Product Manager, identify how you can co-exist.

Effectuation: Affordable Loss

Typically, any startup or Product Manager looks at how to maximise profits in a short time. This is a common human tendency and definitely not wrong.

But an expert product manager or company looks at what they can loose and what is their threshold to loose.

Let me take an example of HAPLO itself. When we started, the segment is very new. Even though there are many companies doing what we do, the approach we have taken is very different. By conversing with few people, I realised that going down the path of fund raising or investments is not only going to take time but it is also an emotional drain.

I did speak with few investment companies and also few angel investors and everyone had the same question, where is the money in Real Estate? Correct. However, we believed in creating value and this would definitely take time to be demonstrated in the market.

So, we decided we will not spend time trying to raise investments, but rather focus on building the platform in our own way. We hire developers when required, get the job done and we sell and implement ourselves. This is a painful process, but we are the long play.

I am not saying I am an expert product manager, but what I have learned is to look at what we can loose, which is both time and money. This is the reason we do consulting works to ensure our livelihoods don’t get hit and when the time is right, we get on the path quickly.

All I am trying to explain is that as Product Managers or Entrepreneurs, what you need to understand is not everything is a hit or a miss on day one. If you can visualise and chart out what you can loose, it will help you focus better on planning the output of your product.

Understanding Effectuation: The Means

What is effectuation all about? Is it a new way of thinking? It is definitely a way of thinking, but a little different, a thinking supported by data and research on how entrepreneurs create or bring new ideas to life.

What are the fundamentals of Effectuation?

The premise of effectuation stands on 5 principals:

  • The Means
  • Focusing on the downside
  • Creating with Partnerships
  • Leveraging contingencies
  • Having a world-wide view

How do these principals differ? Well, the Business Model Canvas and the Entrepreneurs framework’s provide us a template to start working with, but they do not provide a way of evaluating the idea as much. For instance the BMC gives you template to identify what your idea is, what the value is, who are your stakeholders, how are you going to establish your customer support, how do you generate revenue and how do you or can you generate additional revenue.

What Effectuation focus’s on is to give you a means to understand the problem. This is very different from the frameworks.

Let us understand this a little in detail.

The Means

As an entrepreneur, it is very important to understand yourself first. Who am I? This can be a spiritual question, but a practical one. Who am I defines who you actually are, what are your strengths, what are your weakness, what do you know and what you do not know.

As an Entrepreneur it is very important for you to accept yourself first.

I know I can drive a car.

I know that I cannot drive a car.

As an Entrepreneur, if you take my example:

  • I know that I can build something which creates value
  • I know that I cannot sell globally on day 1.

When you start working with this preamble, it will give you a realistic perspective and allows you to be grounded all the time.

The means begins with with self, understanding who you are, what your limitations are.

The First Rule of Ideation

Let’s accept,

There is no such thing as a bad idea!

So, how do you begin your journey to validate if your idea makes sense or not?

Define

Define the problem in as simple words as you can. What are you trying to solve. After you write, share it with you family or friends and ask them to explain back to you what they understand. Keep repeating the process until they tell you exactly what you have in mind.

Gather

Start collecting as much data as you can on the problem. Who else is solving this problem, how are they solving, what is the new thing you are going to add, how are you going to make it more simpler for the consumer?

Research

Take your problem definition and the solution you have in mind to a potential customer or client. Ask them what they think of it and if they would use your solution. You will definitely learn more form the first person you meet. Add them to the list of upcoming features list. Keep repeating the process until you convince your potential client.

Analyze

Analyse what you have envisaged as a ideator. Bring all the data together and identify your costing and your marketing plan.

Value Preposition

Identify the Value Preposition of your idea – What and how is your customer going to benefit using your idea. Go as vertical as you can to get to the depth of the value preposition.

Does this make sense?

Focus points for Entrepreneurs

Not everyone might speak out loud, but every one who changed the world, has learnt the process of enabling their body and mind to bring out the best in themselves.

All of us know how Steve Jobs trip to Haidakhan Babaji ashram in the Himalaya’s gave him a different perspective in life. He then later went on to practice Zen Buddhisim which gave him more clarity and deeper understanding.

It is well understood and accepted that almost all people who changed the world had their own way of building a strong mental attitude when they set out to do things. This is what gives them the phenomenal power to wither any kind of obstacles.

One need not be spiritual or religious, but one needs to understand their body and how the various points in the body can help then bring out the best in them.

What are the focus points?

Understanding Chakra’s

(C) This is a licensed image

There are various ways you can ignite each chakra. For instance, I use music. Find your comfort level to start practicing igniting each chakra. The days you feel you are going to focus on learning something, try solving some puzzles, listen to calm music or just close your eyes and focus on what you want to learn that day. It is like warming up before playing any sport.

As Entrepreneurs, we need to first focus on letting nothing de-motivate or bring us down. It is very important to keep the Heart Chakra always healthy and practice to accept things the way they are.

So, what kind of ritual you follow to keep you grounded?

What is Product Coaching?

Let us deep dive into what is Product Coaching?

Product Coaching focus’s on Product Managers and Team Members to help build a strong product offering.

There are two key aspects of Product Coaching.

  • Behavioural Factors
  • Technical Factors

Behavioural Factors

Behavioural factors relate to the Vision, Mission, Strategy and Business understanding with the team members. For building a successful product, it is important for team members to ensure they understand how the business makes money and what they are committed to. Depending on the level and experience of the team members, Product coaches ensure that these behavioural factors are understood by everyone.

Technical Factors

What technologies are being used to build and manage the product? As technologies keep changing and evolving, it is important for team members to understand how to migrate to newer technologies and how long will a particular technology be available in the market and when should the transition happen etc. These factors to be assessed, understood and shared, Product Coaches help Product Managers to prepare the Tech Strategy framework.

In Summary, all what is required to build a success Product – Team attitude and aptitude, business acumen and technology understanding are the focus on the Product Coaches.

Is AI Overrated?

This can be a controversial post, but I will still go ahead and share my thoughts.

#AI is not new today, it has been existing since the days of any online word document started highlighting spelling mistakes as you write. The next generation AI tools like Grammerly started showing you sentence construction mistakes and grammatical corrections. Most of the book writing softwares also help you with the same.

As times progressed, auto corrections started coming up in most of the technology we use, for instance when you misspel a place name on Google Maps, it automatically asks “Did you mean this?” or in when you do a Google search, and it does not for the exact match, it asks you “Did you mean this?”.

Even in photographic works, smart corrections for adjusting light, brightness etc have always existed since a long time.

So why suddenly all this AI powered advertisements?

Come 2023, Microsoft invested $10 Billion in OpenAI, founded in 2015 by Elon Musk and Sam Altman. This is when s*** hits the fan. All the world is going ga-ga about the game changing AI and how people are going to loose jobs. What happened between 2015-2022 or even before the launch all the work being done to make ChatGPT? 

I call this marketing. If you notice, almost every year since the 70’s there is something new which was coming along and the next few years will be centred around that term. Lets look at a timeline:

1944 – Neural Network

1965 – Expert System

1970 – Fault tolerant

1976 – Ethernet

1977 – Intranet

1979 – Logout

1980 – TCP / IP

1981 – LAN

1982 – Domain Name

1983 – Virtual Private Network, WAN

1984 – VPN

1985 – IP Address & C++

1986 – Internet

1987 – Virtual reality, JIF

1988 – Hyperlink, JPEG / MPEG

1989 – Cybersecurity

1990 – Internet Service Provider

1991 – Cybercrime

1992 – URL, Augmented Reality, PDF,

1993 – Website

1994 – Cyberterrorism

1995 – Livestream

1996 – Cloud Computing

1998 – Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS)

1999 – Blog

2001 – Internet of Things (IoT)

2002 – Vlog

2005 – Ransomwear, Microblogging

2007 – Netbook

2009 – Cryptocurrency

2011 – Blockchain

2016 – Machine Learning (ML)

2023 – Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Notice, its something what has been existing, but someone using a name to make it fad.

If you notice carefully, Apple never uses the word AI in any of its products or conversations? Why? Because they want something of their own, Machine Learning. ML has been doing the rounds for the last few years, but never gained so much attention like the AI. What is the difference?

AI is mainly concerned with utilising stored information to make it easier for you to accomplish tasks based on how you use that information. On the other hand, ML focuses on enabling systems to behave automatically even before receiving input.

All AI powered tools work in the similar fashion. After you give an input, they suggest you how you can better it. For instance, I am using Notion as my primary source of all writings and it does not automatically suggest anything, after i write, I can select the sentence and then ask AI to improve it.

So, do you think AI is overrated? I feel overrated is not the right word to use at all. No one will loose jobs, nothing will happen. It will become part of our daily use like how documentation software suggests you to correct a spelling or improve your writing style. And with regards to loosing jobs, the same was said when computers started taking over, did people loose jobs or adopt? The same will apply here.

What do you think?

Recap

It has been a while since I wrote my blog. Honestly, I have been active in writing on LinkedIn and not updating here.

Over the last one month, I wrote more than 30 posts and would request you to please subscribe to my LinkedIn Newsletter

I will continue to publish here too.